The conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014. Despite a ceasefire agreement in 2015, Russia continues to attack Ukrainian forces in the east of the country. Recently, Russian forces have been focusing their attacks on Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Ukraine is now preparing a counteroffensive to halt the Russian attacks. This will require time to gather, organize, train, and exercise forces. In addition, Ukraine needs more resources, including ammunition and weapons systems, to expand a counteroffensive. Ukraine also needs commercial drones, radio and communications equipment, multi-role combat aircraft, and medical and psychological support for affected servicemen and women.
Russia appears to be convinced that they have a long-term advantage in ammunition production and is using their remaining forces to continue to exert pressure on Avdiivka. Ukraine’s partners should continue to deliver resources and not passively wait to see what happens after the last large deliveries.
Ukraine needs long-term planning of production and deliveries of ammunition and weapons systems, as well as training and exercises, for all of 2023 and into 2024. Political pressure for an earlier start of the counteroffensive should be avoided. A premature counterattack could have fatal consequences for Ukraine and would waste valuable irretrievable resources.
Russia’s attacks on Ukraine may soon come to a halt if Ukraine is able to launch a successful counteroffensive. For this to happen, Ukraine needs more support from its partners. This includes resources such as ammunition, weapons systems, and drones, as well as training and exercises for the counteroffensive. Ukraine also needs medical and psychological support for affected servicemen and women. Strategic patience is essential for Ukraine to be successful in its counteroffensive and to bring the conflict to an end.